A few months ago, I seem to be the "lone" voice saying the possibility of a "W" shape economic recovery. In recent months, most analysts have turned from Bearish to Bullish, and think that the global economy will recover in a "V" shape (fast) recovery...

However, the latest Job Loss data from U.S. clearly shows that the economic fundamentals of U.S. is not showing much improvement, and that the chancce of a W shape economic recovery has risen. In recent weeks, even Mr Tharman (Singapore's Finance Minister) and BG Lee Hsien Loong (Singapore's Prime Minister) also warned the possibility of a "W" shape economic recovery.

Some figures to chew on. China and India contributes 7% and 2% to the Global Economy. U.S. alone contributes 24%. 70% of U.S. economy depends on U.S. local consumption, or in other words, U.S. consumption determines 16.8% of the world's economy, about double that of combining China and India.

U.S. unemployment rate is inching up to 10%, with unemployment rate sky high, consumption in U.S. will take time to recover...now reality starts to set in, which explains why U.S. Stock Market last night plunged by over 2%, or 203 points to end lower at 9,509 points...

Another sign that U.S. consumption is NOT recovering, is the plunge of 23% in Car Sales in Sep 2009. (More news below).

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