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Dennis Ng · Posted: Fri Oct 24, 2008 3:24 pm Post subject:

if you look at the transactions done today, most of Singapore Blue Chips fell alot and at very, very, very HIGH trading volume.

It shows that many thought that it is time to bargain hunt and they bought today. However, in a few months from now, they might realise that they have bought too soon, and if they have waited, possibly they can buy even cheaper.

As I mentioned, I observe from previous Crisis that when stocks bottom, typically they bottom with very low trading volume. Why? Becos, by then most who want to sell already sold, and few people have money NOR the guts to buy, which is why trading volume is low.

Too many people still have too much Cash currently for the markets to have bottomed.

What is catching a falling knife? Some might finally realise the meaning after this Crisis is over. I had my share of catching falling knives in year 2001 and year 2002 before...which is why I remind myself to be patient this time round.
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Dennis Ng
http://www.HousingLoanSG.com - unbiased analysis of ALL Housing Loans in Singapore & Australia!

Dennis Ng · Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 2:55 pm Post subject:

there will be plenty of Bear Market rallies (Bear Traps) along the way, these are necessary to trap more people in and also that is how it will eventually lead to market bottom when MOST people (not ALL) have NO more money to invest. And majority of those Few who still have Cash to invest are too afraid to invest as they have lost so much money already...

Watch for these events to unfold.

Above is just my observation of past Market Crashes, history tend to repeat itself, as most people have too short a memory to remember what happened less than 10 years ago in the Market Crash of 2000 to 2003.
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Dennis Ng
http://www.HousingLoanSG.com - unbiased analysis of ALL Housing Loans in Singapore & Australia!

Dennis Ng · Posted: Thu Oct 30, 2008 9:29 am Post subject:

for short term traders, they can definitely try to make money from short term market volatility, since they have time to monitor the market closely throughout the trading hours of the market.

However, for a busy investor like myself, sometimes I don't have Chance/Time to even check market prices for the whole day. I only get to know the market went up over 100 points or went down over 100 points after the market closed.

Thus, if you have the same "restriction" as myself, then trying to buy/sell within the same day will be dangerous if after you buy, you have no time to monitor closely.

Anyway, from a Technical Analysis point of view, the market was oversold and a technical rebound was already expected to come, just a matter of time.

Last week, STI was down over 145 points in 1 day. Today STI is up 130 points in 1 day as well. Any major changes in fundamentals between last week till now, I'm afraid I didn't notice any. If you notice any major changes in fundamentals, please share, as it might help us to make sense of such Big movements in a single day.

If you managed to take advantage of short term volatility and made money, congratulations.
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Dennis Ng
http://www.HousingLoanSG.com - unbiased analysis of ALL Housing Loans in Singapore & Australia!

Dennis Ng · Posted: Tue Nov 04, 2008 2:37 pm Post subject:

Anything is Possible.

After the recent "market rally", it is possible that markets might fall again in future months.

I remember after Sep 11 incident, I was telling myself, how can anything worse happen? How can anything be more shocking than World Trade Center towers collapsing......so I quickly invested all my Opportunity fund into the market.....

Alas, I was wrong! Then came Enron, World Com......and just when I thought nothing worse can EVER happen, then we had SARS in March 2003....

From that experience, I learned that ANYTHING is possible.

Some said that nothing worse can happen in future after what happened (Lehman Brother collapse, AIG in trouble)......

Now I try to keep my mind open to possibilities.

Anything is possible.
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Dennis Ng
http://www.HousingLoanSG.com - unbiased analysis of ALL Housing Loans in Singapore & Australia!

Dennis Ng · Posted: Sat Nov 15, 2008 3:25 am Post subject:

Reality bites. After the recent euphoria over the voting of the First Black President for U.S., investors now have to face bad news announced by companies almost on a daily basis.

Regards.

Dennis Ng, http://www.HousingLoanSG.com

Company news: Troubled mortgage giant Freddie Mac (FRE, Fortune 500) reported a steep $25 billion quarterly loss and said it will start chipping away at the $100 billion in taxpayer funds set aside for its bailout. Shares fell 11%. (Full story)

Sun Microsystems (JAVA, Fortune 500) said Friday it will cut up to 6,000 jobs, or 18% of its workforce, as a cost-cutting measure. The software and computer networking company also said it was restructuring its software business operations. Shares rose modestly.

Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) is reportedly getting ready to lay off another 10,000 people on top of the 23,000 it has already let go, according to a Wall Street Journal story Friday. The company is also expected to boost credit card rates, the report said. Shares fell 5%.

Investors again pulled money out of equity mutual funds last week, following the first week in months in which investors added money to funds.

In the week ended Nov. 12, investors pulled roughly $31.8 billion out of equity mutual funds, according to tracking firm Trim Tabs. In the previous week, investors added roughly $2.2 billion to funds. However, that one week was an anomaly, with investors cashing out of funds in 15 of the last 16 weeks amid the stock market selloff.
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Dennis Ng
http://www.HousingLoanSG.com - unbiased analysis of ALL Housing Loans in Singapore & Australia!

Dennis Ng · Posted: Sat Jan 03, 2009 12:51 am Post subject:

A possible scenario is for the Global Stock Markets to stage a recovery somewhat for the next few weeks, especially after Obama's inauguration, as this creates hope and becos of the "Obama Effect".

However, a few months later, when more and more companies go into trouble and it looks like recovery likely to be painful and not so swift, global stock markets might take another dip (double bottom?)

Above is just my personal opinion. You can certainlyhave a different opinion.

I might be totally wrong though.

In recent weeks, I've been buying several stocks which I have already updated in various postings in this forum. Today I bought some China Milk at 39 cents as well.
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Dennis Ng
http://www.HousingLoanSG.com - unbiased analysis of ALL Housing Loans in Singapore & Australia!

Dennis Ng · Last edited by Dennis Ng on Thu Mar 26, 2009 2:57 pm; edited 1 time in total

Have we missed the Bottom of the stock markets? This is the No. 1 question I see being asked in internet discussion forum after Dow surged over 500 points yesterday.

Personally, I rather miss the bottom than risk catching a falling knife. I would rather buy at higher prices, but buy after the bottom passes me by.

I understand that from technical analysis, it is not clear whether markets have bottomed or not. It could have bottomed but it could also have the possbility of moving down further...

However, if I use the "streetsmart analysis" that the market typically bottoms when the economy is at its worst, then I would say that it is clear that S'pore economy has not reached its worst yet.

I think the risks of nationalisation of CITIBANK has reduced, thus, the chance of CITIGROUP's share price hitting lower than the recent low of US$0.90 is quite remote. I've sold some CITIGROUP's shares at US$2.80, making a 40% gain, the rest I intend to hold for 3 to 5 years....my effective average cost is very low if I factored in the realised gains I had (2 rounds trading in CITIGROUP).

I only invested 2% of my money (or 7% of my stock portfolio) into CITIGROUP, I'm not someone who would risk too much of my money into any single stock.
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Dennis Ng
http://www.HousingLoanSG.com - unbiased analysis of ALL Housing Loans in Singapore & Australia!

Dennis Ng · Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2009 2:56 pm Post subject:

I'm a Market Cycle Investor, who basically make money by Riding on a Major Market Trend. In a typical bull market, stock prices rise 200% to 500%. If a person miss the market bottom and pays 30% higher prices, he/she is just earning slightly less money, that's all.

If a person is fully invested and the market falls another 30%, he/she needs to make 42.85% in order to break-even.

Most people only make money if they are right. I rather adopt a strategy which enables me to make money even when I'm wrong...(ie. in this case, it is missing Market Bottom).

Of course, my strategy would not enable me to make the most money, but it enables me to avoid losing too much as well, which basically means that I see myself as an average person, not smarter than others, so I do not try strategies which try to outsmart others.
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Dennis Ng
http://www.HousingLoanSG.com - unbiased analysis of ALL Housing Loans in Singapore & Australia!

Dennis Ng

Hi everyone,

I'm back in Singapore.

The last 2 weeks of market activities were very interesting.

There were bad news announced eg. unemployment figure higher, weakness in manufacturing index, yet Global Stock Markets held up well and on the whole, ended up higher.

This is actually a possible sign that market might have bottomed.

Becos according to my observation of "historical records", when bad news out and yet stock prices hold steady, it might be a "sign" that market has already factored in most of the bad news, which is why more bad news does not "scare" the market.

Yesterday Dow started weak (down over 100 points) but almost recouped its losses and ended 40+ points down, again another positive sign.

However, it is still possible that what happened was just a Bear Market Rally.....unfortunately, nobody knows for sure at the moment, if I tell you I know, I'm bluffing you.... thus, in my opinion, the next few weeks how stock markets perform would give us clearer indication on whether what we had was a Market Bottoming process or just a Bear Market Rally....

Stay tuned.

As for myself, I'm always prepared to be wrong, which is why I already had some money invested into Stocks and on the other hand, I also hold some Opportunity Fund and is not fully invested. Adopting such a strategy, I cannot get the maximum returns, but at the same I also minimise the losses I suffer if I'm wrong.

I'm just sharing what I do and why I do what I do. Not saying that my strategy is good or bad, just sharing my thoughts, that's all.
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Dennis Ng
http://www.HousingLoanSG.com - unbiased analysis of ALL Housing Loans in Singapore & Australia!